diff --git a/eoc/eoc-rs/crates/eoc-meter/src/lib.rs b/eoc/eoc-rs/crates/eoc-meter/src/lib.rs
index fa24bebeb..63bdd6965 100644
--- a/eoc/eoc-rs/crates/eoc-meter/src/lib.rs
+++ b/eoc/eoc-rs/crates/eoc-meter/src/lib.rs
@@ -3390,13 +3390,23 @@ mod macos_ioreport {
                     handed.iter().filter_map(|s| s.iter().find(|(k, _)| k == key).map(|(_, v)| *v)).collect();
                 values.dedup();
                 if *lo != hi {
-                    assert!(
-                        values.len() >= 2,
-                        "{key:?} moved {lo} -> {hi} across the oracle's reads, but every one of the {} samples the \
-                         production probe took read {values:?}: its sampler is not sampling",
-                        handed.len()
-                    );
-                    lines.push(format!("{}: moved {lo} -> {hi}, the probe read {} distinct values within it", key.0, values.len()));
+                    // The oracle's two reads *bracket* the probe's samples, so a rise it
+                    // saw can fall entirely outside the probe's own window. GPU energy
+                    // rises only while the GPU works -- it is activity-driven, not a clock
+                    // -- so on a shared host another process's short burst lands between
+                    // the oracle's first read and the probe's first sample as easily as
+                    // inside it. One value here is therefore no evidence of a sampler that
+                    // does not sample, and asserting it was a rise the probe must also see
+                    // failed once in ~300 CI runs on an otherwise green tree.
+                    lines.push(if values.len() >= 2 {
+                        format!("{}: moved {lo} -> {hi}, the probe read {} distinct values within it", key.0, values.len())
+                    } else {
+                        format!(
+                            "{}: moved {lo} -> {hi} across the oracle's reads, but the probe read only {values:?}, \
+                             so the rise fell outside its window and freshness is NOT asserted on it",
+                            key.0
+                        )
+                    });
                 } else {
                     lines.push(format!("{}: held at {lo} across the bracket, so freshness is NOT asserted on it", key.0));
                 }