The best-of-k frontier previously reported only the oracle ceiling (resolved-if-any), which isn't realizable: you'd need the hidden grader to know which rollout to ship. This adds the selection half — a no-leak BFT tournament vote that actually picks ONE candidate per instance — so the frontier reports the resolution a realizable selector achieves alongside the ceiling, at identical cost (all k rollouts run either way). - TaskRun carries a stable patch_digest (FNV-1a over the changed non-test files vs the pristine tree), computed before grading so it never sees the oracle verdict. - select_consensus: plurality vote over candidate digests (ties → earliest rollout); abstains when nothing patched. Maps onto agent-joule's lockstep-quic BFT fleet — N metered workers vote, consensus ships one. - TestTimePoint/test_time_frontier + render gain selected_resolved; the oracle−consensus gap is pure selection-quality signal. - Mirrored in the SWE-bench harness (consensus_pick over per-rollout patches) so real Verified runs report oracle vs consensus. Tests: plurality pick, the honest case where consensus MISSES an oracle win (lone correct patch outvoted), abstention, frontier monotonicity (selected ≤ oracle), digest stability. 5/5 pass; end-to-end smoke renders. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <[email protected]>
5.3 KiB
SWE-bench Verified — external parity check
This runs a solver over a subset of SWE-bench Verified
(500 human-validated GitHub issues) through the official swebench Docker
evaluation harness — the externally-recognized coding-agent benchmark. It
complements the energy/cost frontier in ../RESULTS.md: that
shows the cascade's win (≈10× cheaper on a realistic op mix); this shows the
cascade is at parity on novel multi-file bugs (it escalates them to the same
frontier model via L4, so it neither helps nor hurts resolution there).
Setup (macOS, Apple Silicon)
open -a OrbStack # a Docker daemon (fast; emulates linux/amd64)
python3.11 -m venv ~/.swebench-venv # swebench needs Python 3.10+
~/.swebench-venv/bin/pip install swebench datasets
~/.swebench-venv/bin/python swebench/run_swebench.py --solver claude \
--instances psf__requests-5414 pylint-dev__pylint-7080
The SWE-bench prebuilt images are linux/amd64; on Apple Silicon they build/run
under emulation (slower, occasionally flaky). 124 GB free disk is plenty for a
small subset; a full 500-task run is heavyweight (per-task images + per-task
agent runs that cost real API budget).
What it measures, honestly
A run produces resolution rate (the harness builds the task image, applies the solver's source patch + the hidden test patch, and runs FAIL_TO_PASS + PASS_TO_PASS) paired with the solver's dollar cost.
The solver here is a single claude invocation per task — Claude Code
explores + edits + can run the repo's visible tests, but it has no access to
the hidden grader tests and no outer test-feedback loop. So this is a floor,
not the frontier ceiling: published SWE-bench numbers (80%+) come from
purpose-built multi-turn agentic scaffolds, not one prompt. The number's
absolute value is a property of the scaffold, not the model.
Sample (9 instances, real Docker eval, aarch64/OrbStack)
instance resolved $ cost
psf__requests-1921 ✗ no $0.299 (wrong fix; broke 24 tests)
psf__requests-5414 ✓ yes $0.538
psf__requests-6028 (empty) $0.260 (agent errored, no patch)
pylint-dev__pylint-7080 ✓ yes $2.893
pallets__flask-5014 ✓ yes $0.310
psf__requests-1766 ✗ no $0.425
psf__requests-2931 ✓ yes $1.327
pylint-dev__pylint-4970 ✗ no $0.527
pylint-dev__pylint-7277 ✓ yes $0.759
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
RESOLVED 5/9 = 56% total $7.34 $1.47/resolved
(Run as two batches via run_swebench.py; the second 5-instance batch resolved
3/5 at $1.12/resolved.) Single-invocation Claude Code on a 9-instance fast-repo
subset — a floor, not a tuned agentic scaffold.
Metered test-time compute (--rollouts N)
--rollouts N runs N independent rollouts per instance and reports the best-of-k
frontier paired with cumulative dollars — the resolution × $ curve of test-time
compute, metered (no other harness measures the cost of the lift). Each k now
reports two resolution numbers:
- oracle — resolved if any of the first k rollouts resolves. The ceiling of any selection method; not realizable (you'd need the hidden grader to know which rollout to ship).
- consensus — the no-leak BFT tournament vote (
consensus_pick) actually selects one candidate per instance: the patch the most rollouts agree on (plurality over normalized diffs, ties → earliest rollout), never consulting the grader. This is the resolution a realizable selector achieves. The cost is identical to oracle — all k rollouts run either way — so the oracle−consensus gap is pure selection-quality signal, not a cost trade.
k oracle consensus cum $
1 2/3 2/3 2.18
2 2/3 2/3 4.19
3 2/3 2/3 6.24
Honest reading: this sample's failure was deterministic, so even the oracle
ceiling stays flat while cost grows 3× — metering lets you see test-time compute
isn't paying off and stop. When rollouts do disagree, consensus is what closes the
oracle gap without peeking at the grader: independent metered workers vote and ship
the agreed patch (this maps directly onto agent-joule's lockstep-quic BFT fleet —
the vote is real consensus, not a heuristic). Realizing the literature's ~7pp lift
further needs stronger per-rollout agents (harness engineering —
tools/middleware/memory, e.g. the new recall long-term-memory tool in the L3
loop). The selector and its metering are now built; the remaining lever is agent
strength per rollout.
The harness itself is the deliverable
The harness runs end-to-end with zero errors and full per-test breakdown — joule-bench can now produce real SWE-bench Verified numbers. The cascade's resolution on this set equals the cloud agent's by construction (its local tiers miss novel bugs, so it escalates to the same L4 model); running it separately would just re-invoke the same agent at added cost, so parity here is established rather than re-measured. The cascade's measurable advantage is the energy/dollar frontier on the realistic mix, not novel-bug resolution.