eoc-route-learned: recommend the stage cheapest in expectation, not the likeliest #439
2026-10-22
eoc-route-learned: pin the classifier's self-reinforcement and MF's confidence
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Two mutants of the previous commit survived: a correct result on the predicted stage itself no longer reinforcing it, and MF reporting a fixed confidence. Each now has a test. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>
eoc-route-learned: recommend the stage cheapest in expectation, not the likeliest
The crate says a learned router "predicts the cheapest stage that is likely to satisfy the query". Three of its four routers recommended the stage likeliest to succeed: MF and both bandits took an argmax over success, and the bandits ignored the joule cost `observe` passed them. Neural succeeds on everything and costs the most, so they learned to send every query there. The synthetic LinUCB test pinned exactly that as the goal. - router: `expected_joules` prices a skip the way LearnedCascade dispatches it (Kv or Graph falling through to Neural, Neural alone, Cache as the full walk), and `cheapest_in_expectation` picks the least. A broken probability prices a stage dearer, never cheaper. `observe` is the outcome of one stage that ran, with that stage's own joules. - MF picks by that rule over its per-stage chances and learned costs. - LinUCB and Thompson learn each stage's cost and pick by the rule over optimistic and sampled chances. Confidence is the mean belief, not the bound or sample used to explore. Older saved states import with the default costs. - train_logreg labels each query with its cheapest successful stage; the classifier's online update no longer reinforces a correct stage costlier than the one it predicts. - evaluate replays each recommendation over per-stage outcomes. It charged every row's own cost whatever the router chose and priced the walk at 4x that, so every router showed a lift of 3x its spend. A query it cannot price is counted unscored, not charged zero, and joules_per_correct is None when nothing was correct. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>